Michael Ward

Professor of Political Science

External Address: 
140 Science Drive, 294E Gross, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
Internal Office Address: 
Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708-0204
(919) 660-4373
International Relations, Methods, Political Economy, Security, Peace, Conflict


  • Ph.D., Northwestern University 1977
  • B.A., Indiana University at Indianapolis 1970

Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. Spatial Regression Models (in Chinese). Ed. T Lao. Sage Publications & Truth and Wisdom Press, 2012.

Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. Analyzing dependencies in geo-economics and geo-politics. October 30, 2008. Full Text

Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. Spatial Regression Models. SAGE, February 29, 2008.

Ward, MD. The New Geopolitics. Taylor & Francis, January 1, 1992.

Ward, M. Power in World Politics. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1989.

Guetzkow, HS, and Ward, MD. Theories, models, and simulations in international relations. Westview Pr, 1985.

Dynamic Approaches to International Conflict. Ed. MD Ward and U Luterbacher. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1985.

Ward, MD. Research gaps in alliance dynamics. Denver Monograph Series in World Affairs, 1982.

Ward, MD. The Political Economy of Distribution. North Holland, New York: Elsevier, 1978.

WARD, MD, and Dorff, CL. "Les réseaux, les dyades et le modèle des relations sociales." Liber amicorum: Hommage en l’honneur du Professeur Jacques Fontanel. Ed. L Perrin-Bensahel and J-F Guilhaudis. L’Harmattan, March 2013. 271-288.

Ward, MD. "Statistical Analysis of International Interdependencies." International Studies Encyclopaedic Compendium:. Ed. PF Diehl and JD Morrow. Cambridge University Press, 2010. 6615-6628.

Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. "Analyzing Dependencies in Geo-Politics and Geo-Economics." Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development. Ed. J Fontanel and M Chatterji. Emerald Publishing (Elsevier), 2009. 133-160.

Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Diffusion and the spread of democratic institutions." The Global Diffusion of Markets and Democracy. January 1, 2008. 261-302. Full Text

Minhas, S, Hoff, PD, and Ward, MD. "A new approach to analyzing coevolving longitudinal networks in international relations." Journal of Peace Research 53.3 (May 2016): 491-505. Full Text

Beger, A, Dorff, CL, and Ward, MD. "Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models." International Journal of Forecasting 32.1 (January 2016): 98-111. Full Text

Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social sciences." International Journal of Forecasting 31.3 (July 2015): 930-942. Full Text

Cao, X, and Ward, MD. "Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment? Transnational Portfolio Investments Modeled as Dynamic Network." International Interactions 40.2 (March 15, 2014): 216-245. Full Text

Bakke, KM, O'Loughlin, J, Toal, G, and Ward, MD. "Convincing State-Builders? Disaggregating Internal Legitimacy in Abkhazia." International Studies Quarterly 58.3 (January 1, 2014): 591-607. Full Text

Dorff, C, and Ward, MD. "Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model." Political Science Research and Methods 1.02 (December 2013): 159-178. Full Text

Ward, MD, Metternich, NW, Dorff, CL, Gallop, M, Hollenbach, FM, Schultz, A, and Weschle, S. "Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction." International Studies Review 15.4 (December 2013): 473-490. Full Text

WARD, MD, Ahlquist, JS, and Rozenas, A. "Gravity’s Rainbow: A Dynamic Latent Space Model for the World Trade Network." Network Science 1 (March 2013): 95-118. (Academic Article)

Metternich, NW, Dorff, C, Gallop, M, Weschle, S, and Ward, MD. "Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior." American Journal of Political Science 57.4 (January 1, 2013): 892-911. Full Text

Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future: Using contentious issues to forecast interstate disputes." Journal of Peace Research 50.1 (January 1, 2013): 17-31. Full Text


III: Small: Cumulon: Easy and Efficient Statistical Big-Data Analysis in the Cloud awarded by National Science Foundation (Co-Principal Investigator). 2013 to 2017

Collaborative Research: Automated Real-time Production of Political Indicators awarded by National Science Foundation (Principal Investigator). 2013 to 2017

Validation for Split-Population Duration IED Models awarded by Office of Naval Research (Principal Investigator). 2015 to 2016

Improving Predictions of IED: Split Population Risk Modeling awarded by Office of Naval Research (Principal Investigator). 2012 to 2015

Phase II of Phase VI Analytics in Support of the Political Instability Task Force awarded by Science Applications International Corporation (Principal Investigator). 2013 to 2014