Michael Ward

Michael Ward

Professor Emeritus of Political Science

External Address: 
140 Science Drive, 294E Gross, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
Internal Office Address: 
Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708-0204
(919) 660-4373
International Relations, Methods, Political Economy, Security, Peace, Conflict


  • Ph.D., Northwestern University 1977
  • B.A., Indiana University at Indianapolis 1970

Ward, M. D., and K. S. Gleditsch. Spatial Regression Models (in Chinese). Edited by Tim Lao, Sage Publications & Truth and Wisdom Press, 2012.

Ward, M. D., and P. D. Hoff. Analyzing dependencies in geo-economics and geo-politics. Vol. 6, 2008, pp. 133–60. Scopus, doi:10.1016/S1572-8323(08)06009-8. Full Text

Ward, Michael D., and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. Spatial Regression Models. SAGE, 2008.

Ward, Michael Don. The New Geopolitics. Taylor & Francis, 1992.

Ward, M. Power in World Politics. Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1989.

Guetzkow, Harold Steere, and Michael Don Ward. Theories, models, and simulations in international relations. Westview Pr, 1985.

Ward, M. D., and U. Luterbacher, editors. Dynamic Approaches to International Conflict. Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1985.

Ward, Michael Don. Research gaps in alliance dynamics. Denver Monograph Series in World Affairs, 1982.

Ward, Michael Don. The Political Economy of Distribution. Elsevier, 1978.

WARD, M. D., and Cassy L. Dorff. “Les réseaux, les dyades et le modèle des relations sociales.” Liber Amicorum: Hommage En l’honneur Du Professeur Jacques Fontanel, edited by Liliane Perrin-Bensahel and Jean-Francois Guilhaudis, L’Harmattan, 2013, pp. 271–88.

Ward, M. D. “Statistical Analysis of International Interdependencies.International Studies Encyclopaedic Compendium:, edited by Paul F. Diehl and James D. Morrow, vol. Scientific Studies of International Proc, Cambridge University Press, 2010, pp. 6615–28.

Ward, M. D., and P. D. Hoff. “Analyzing Dependencies in Geo-Politics and Geo-Economics.” Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, edited by Jacques Fontanel and Manas Chatterji, vol. 6, Emerald Publishing (Elsevier), 2009, pp. 133–60.

Gleditsch, K. S., and M. D. Ward. “Diffusion and the spread of democratic institutions.” The Global Diffusion of Markets and Democracy, vol. 9780521878890, 2008, pp. 261–302. Scopus, doi:10.1017/CBO9780511755941.007. Full Text

Lee, S. J., et al. “Lost in space: Geolocation in event data.” Political Science Research and Methods, vol. 7, no. 4, Oct. 2019, pp. 871–88. Scopus, doi:10.1017/psrm.2018.23. Full Text

Minhas, S., et al. “Inferential Approaches for Network Analysis: AMEN for Latent Factor Models.” Political Analysis, vol. 27, no. 2, Apr. 2019, pp. 208–22. Scopus, doi:10.1017/pan.2018.50. Full Text

Hollenbach, F. M., et al. “Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas.” Sociological Methods and Research, Jan. 2018. Scopus, doi:10.1177/0049124118799381. Full Text

Beger, A., et al. “Splitting it up: The spduration split-population duration regression package for time-varying covariates.” R Journal, vol. 9, no. 2, Dec. 2017, pp. 474–86.

Metternich, N. W., et al. “Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 61, no. 6, July 2017, pp. 1151–73. Scopus, doi:10.1177/0022002715603452. Full Text

Ward, M. D., and A. Beger. “Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership changes.” Journal of Peace Research, vol. 54, no. 2, Jan. 2017, pp. 141–56. Scopus, doi:10.1177/0022343316680858. Full Text

Beger, A., et al. “Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models.” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 32, no. 1, Jan. 2016, pp. 98–111. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.009. Full Text

Minhas, S., et al. “A new approach to analyzing coevolving longitudinal networks in international relations.” Journal of Peace Research, vol. 53, no. 3, Jan. 2016, pp. 491–505. Scopus, doi:10.1177/0022343316630783. Full Text

Montgomery, J. M., et al. “Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social sciences.” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 31, no. 3, July 2015, pp. 930–42. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.001. Full Text

Minhas, S., et al. “Mining texts to efficiently generate global data on political regime types.” Research and Politics, vol. 2, no. 3, July 2015. Scopus, doi:10.1177/2053168015589217. Full Text


Ward, M. D., et al. “Identifying international networks: Latent spaces and imputation.” Dynamic Social Network Modeling and Analysis, edited by R. Breiger et al., NATL ACADEMIES PRESS, 2003, pp. 345–59.

Wilson, A., et al. “Re-entry into general practice - The Wessex strategy.” Education for General Practice, vol. 9, no. 1 SUPPL., 1998, pp. 135–37.

Selected Grants

III: Small: Cumulon: Easy and Efficient Statistical Big-Data Analysis in the Cloud awarded by National Science Foundation (Co-Principal Investigator). 2013 to 2017

Collaborative Research: Automated Real-time Production of Political Indicators awarded by National Science Foundation (Principal Investigator). 2013 to 2017

Validation for Split-Population Duration IED Models awarded by Office of Naval Research (Principal Investigator). 2015 to 2016

Improving Predictions of IED: Split Population Risk Modeling awarded by Office of Naval Research (Principal Investigator). 2012 to 2015