Michael Ward

Michael Ward

Professor Emeritus of Political Science

External Address: 
140 Science Drive, 294E Gross, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
Internal Office Address: 
Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708-0204
(919) 660-4373
International Relations, Methods, Political Economy, Security, Peace, Conflict


  • Ph.D., Northwestern University 1977
  • B.A., Indiana University at Indianapolis 1970

Montgomery, J. M., et al. “Improving predictions using ensemble bayesian model averaging.” Political Analysis, vol. 20, no. 3, July 2012, pp. 271–91. Scopus, doi:10.1093/pan/mps002. Full Text

Ward, Michael D. “Networks of Nations: The Evolution, Structure, and Impact of International Networks, 1816–2001. By Zeev Maoz. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010. 448p. $95.00 cloth, $36.99 paper..” Perspectives on Politics, vol. 10, no. 1, Cambridge University Press (CUP), Mar. 2012, pp. 224–25. Crossref, doi:10.1017/s1537592711004828. Full Text

Montgomery, J. M., et al. “Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election.” Ps: Political Science and Politics, vol. 45, no. 4, 2012, pp. 651–54. Manual, doi:10.2307/41691405. Full Text

Greenhill, B., et al. “The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models.” American Journal of Political Science, vol. 55, no. 4, Oct. 2011, pp. 991–1002. Scopus, doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00525.x. Full Text

Ward, M. D., et al. “Network analysis and political science.” Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 14, June 2011, pp. 245–64. Scopus, doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.12.040907.115949. Full Text

Weidmann, N. B., and M. D. Ward. “Erratum to: Predicting Conflict in Space and Time(Journal of Conflict Resolution, (2010), 54, 6 (883-901), 10.1177/0022002710371669).” Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 55, no. 2, Apr. 2011. Scopus, doi:10.1177/0022002711405502. Full Text

Ward, M. D., et al. “The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts.” Journal of Peace Research, vol. 47, no. 4, July 2010, pp. 363–75. Scopus, doi:10.1177/0022343309356491. Full Text

Raftery, A. E., and M. D. Ward. “Special issue on statistical methods for the social sciences: Guest editors' introduction.” Statistical Methodology, vol. 7, no. 3, May 2010, pp. 173–74. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.stamet.2010.01.005. Full Text

Weidmann, N. B., and M. D. Ward. “Predicting conflict in space and time.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 54, no. 6, Jan. 2010, pp. 883–901. Scopus, doi:10.1177/0022002710371669. Full Text

Greenhill, Brian D., et al. “Perils of Policy by P-Value: Predicting Civil Conflicts.” Journal of Peace Research, vol. 47, no. 4, 2010, pp. 1–13.