Michael Ward

Michael Ward

Professor Emeritus of Political Science

External Address: 
140 Science Drive, 294E Gross, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
Internal Office Address: 
Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708-0204
(919) 660-4373
International Relations, Methods, Political Economy, Security, Peace, Conflict


  • Ph.D., Northwestern University 1977
  • B.A., Indiana University at Indianapolis 1970

Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election." PS: Political Science and Politics 45.4 (2012): 651-654. Full Text

Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging." Political Analysis 20.03 (2012): 271-291. Full Text

Greenhill, B, Ward, MD, and Sacks, A. "The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models." American Journal of Political Science 55.4 (October 1, 2011): 991-1002. Full Text

Ward, MD, Stovel, K, and Sacks, A. "Network Analysis and Political Science." Annual Review of Political Science 14.1 (June 15, 2011): 245-264. Full Text

"Erratum." Journal of Conflict Resolution 55.2 (April 2011): 321-321. Full Text

Weidmann, NB, and Ward, MD. "Predicting Conflict in Space and Time." Journal of Conflict Resolution 54.6 (December 2010): 883-901. Full Text

Ward, MD, Greenhill, BD, and Bakke, KM. "The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts." Journal of Peace Research 47.4 (July 2010): 363-375. Full Text

Greenhill, BD, Ward, MD, and Bakke, KM. "Perils of Policy by P-Value: Predicting Civil Conflicts." Journal of Peace Research 47.4 (2010): 1-13. (Academic Article)

Ward, MD, and Raftery, AE. "Special Issue on Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences." Statistical Methodology 8 (2010). (Academic Article)