Michael Ward

Michael Ward

Professor Emeritus of Political Science

External Address: 
140 Science Drive, 294E Gross, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
Internal Office Address: 
Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708-0204
(919) 660-4373
International Relations, Methods, Political Economy, Security, Peace, Conflict


  • Ph.D., Northwestern University 1977
  • B.A., Indiana University at Indianapolis 1970

Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. Spatial Regression Models (in Chinese). Ed. T Lao. Sage Publications & Truth and Wisdom Press, 2012.

Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. Analyzing dependencies in geo-economics and geo-politics. October 30, 2008. Full Text

Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. Spatial Regression Models. SAGE, February 29, 2008.

Ward, MD. The New Geopolitics. Taylor & Francis, January 1, 1992.

Ward, M. Power in World Politics. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1989.

Guetzkow, HS, and Ward, MD. Theories, models, and simulations in international relations. Westview Pr, 1985.

Dynamic Approaches to International Conflict. Ed. MD Ward and U Luterbacher. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1985.

Ward, MD. Research gaps in alliance dynamics. Denver Monograph Series in World Affairs, 1982.

Ward, MD. The Political Economy of Distribution. North Holland, New York: Elsevier, 1978.

WARD, MD, and Dorff, CL. "Les réseaux, les dyades et le modèle des relations sociales." Liber amicorum: Hommage en l’honneur du Professeur Jacques Fontanel. Ed. L Perrin-Bensahel and J-F Guilhaudis. L’Harmattan, March 2013. 271-288.

Ward, MD. "Statistical Analysis of International Interdependencies." International Studies Encyclopaedic Compendium:. Ed. PF Diehl and JD Morrow. Cambridge University Press, 2010. 6615-6628.

Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. "Analyzing Dependencies in Geo-Politics and Geo-Economics." Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development. Ed. J Fontanel and M Chatterji. Emerald Publishing (Elsevier), 2009. 133-160.

Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Diffusion and the spread of democratic institutions." The Global Diffusion of Markets and Democracy. January 1, 2008. 261-302. Full Text

Hollenbach, FM, Bojinov, I, Minhas, S, Metternich, NW, Ward, MD, and Volfovsky, A. "Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas(Accepted)." Sociological Methods and Research (January 1, 2018). Full Text

Beger, A, Hill, DW, Metternich, NW, Minhas, S, and Ward, MD. "Splitting it up: The spduration split-population duration regression package for time-varying covariates." R Journal 9.2 (December 1, 2017): 474-486.

Metternich, NW, Minhas, S, and Ward, MD. "Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61.6 (July 1, 2017): 1151-1173. Full Text

Ward, MD, and Beger, A. "Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership changes." Journal of Peace Research 54.2 (January 1, 2017): 141-156. Full Text

Minhas, S, Hoff, PD, and Ward, MD. "A new approach to analyzing coevolving longitudinal networks in international relations." Journal of Peace Research 53.3 (January 1, 2016): 491-505. Full Text

Beger, A, Dorff, CL, and Ward, MD. "Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models." International Journal of Forecasting 32.1 (January 1, 2016): 98-111. Full Text

Minhas, S, Ulfelder, J, and Ward, MD. "Mining texts to efficiently generate global data on political regime types." Research and Politics 2.3 (July 1, 2015). Full Text

Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social sciences." International Journal of Forecasting 31.3 (July 1, 2015): 930-942. Full Text

Beger, A, Dorff, CL, and Ward, MD. "Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change." Research and Politics 1.3 (October 1, 2014). Full Text

Cao, X, and Ward, MD. "Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment? Transnational Portfolio Investments Modeled as Dynamic Network." International Interactions 40.2 (January 1, 2014): 216-245. Full Text


Ward, MD, Hoff, PD, and Lofdahl, CL. "Identifying international networks: Latent spaces and imputation." 2003.

Wilson, A, Ward, M, Kirby, A, and Pinder, R. "Re-entry into general practice - The Wessex strategy." January 1, 1998.

Selected Grants

III: Small: Cumulon: Easy and Efficient Statistical Big-Data Analysis in the Cloud awarded by National Science Foundation (Co-Principal Investigator). 2013 to 2017

Collaborative Research: Automated Real-time Production of Political Indicators awarded by National Science Foundation (Principal Investigator). 2013 to 2017

Validation for Split-Population Duration IED Models awarded by Office of Naval Research (Principal Investigator). 2015 to 2016

Improving Predictions of IED: Split Population Risk Modeling awarded by Office of Naval Research (Principal Investigator). 2012 to 2015

Phase II of Phase VI Analytics in Support of the Political Instability Task Force awarded by Science Applications International Corporation (Principal Investigator). 2013 to 2014