Sponsor
Political Science
PE/PI Workshop: Leo Baccini (McGill)
Wednesday, April 22,
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Leo Baccini (McGill) will present, "Legacies of Globalization and the Role of the State in the AI Economy" (with Katja Kleinberg and Stephen Weymouth)
Abstract:
Globalization restructured labor markets, and now artificial intelligence (AI) threatens a new wave of displacement. How do these shocks shape attitudes about the government's role in the economy? We develop a theory of sequential disruption in which attitudes about the state's economic role depend on the employment legacies of globalization. We argue that globalization shaped beliefs about whether markets deliver secure work and fair pay, and those beliefs condition how citizens interpret AI displacement risk and the appropriate government response. Cross-national survey evidence shows that support for government responsibility is stronger where manufacturing employment declined, with effects concentrated among low-skilled workers. Exploiting variation in exposure to the NAFTA shock, we find that demand for a larger government role increased among low-skilled Americans and declined among low-skilled Mexicans. Survey experiments show that AI displacement information increases support for government involvement in the United States and Mexico, but weakens beliefs that markets provide economic security only in the U.S., where globalization had previously eroded them. Unlike trade, AI displacement does not activate the same skill-based cleavages, suggesting that citizens evaluate automation risk less through individual labor-market position than through broader national experience. These findings recast the politics of AI as dependent on the legacies of globalization.
Abstract:
Globalization restructured labor markets, and now artificial intelligence (AI) threatens a new wave of displacement. How do these shocks shape attitudes about the government's role in the economy? We develop a theory of sequential disruption in which attitudes about the state's economic role depend on the employment legacies of globalization. We argue that globalization shaped beliefs about whether markets deliver secure work and fair pay, and those beliefs condition how citizens interpret AI displacement risk and the appropriate government response. Cross-national survey evidence shows that support for government responsibility is stronger where manufacturing employment declined, with effects concentrated among low-skilled workers. Exploiting variation in exposure to the NAFTA shock, we find that demand for a larger government role increased among low-skilled Americans and declined among low-skilled Mexicans. Survey experiments show that AI displacement information increases support for government involvement in the United States and Mexico, but weakens beliefs that markets provide economic security only in the U.S., where globalization had previously eroded them. Unlike trade, AI displacement does not activate the same skill-based cleavages, suggesting that citizens evaluate automation risk less through individual labor-market position than through broader national experience. These findings recast the politics of AI as dependent on the legacies of globalization.