For 10 days in early January, nearly 40 Duke undergraduate and graduate students, Duke Political Science faculty members and alumni traced the path of the 1968 Tet Offensive through Vietnam. Their trip was an academic adaptation of the “staff ride” format the U.S. military uses to educate leaders about a specific historical campaign or conflict, examining the event and its effects from historical, strategic and political perspectives. But the Duke travelers weren’t just along for the ride: each was responsible for… read more about 'Staff Ride' in Vietnam offers students immersive learning »
Peter D. Feaver, a political scientist at Duke who studies public opinion on national security issues, said he saw no basis for the White House claims. “I don’t think there’s evidence of the press underreporting terrorism,” he said. “The corporate incentives run the other way.” But Mr. Feaver, who served in the George W. Bush White House but publicly opposed Mr. Trump during the presidential campaign, said the president’s remarks, if not literally true, nonetheless play out in a larger, partisan debate about terrorism.… read more about Is News of Terror Attacks Underplayed? Experts Say No - Peter Feaver interviewed for The NYTimes »
A Jan. 31 Washington Post article, penned by data scientist Andreas Beger and Duke University political science professor Michael Ward, discussed a forecast model that measures the likelihood of “irregular leadership changes, including coups.” According to Beger and Ward, their model shows Turkey coming in fifth (out of a total of 161 countries) most likely to experience a coup in 2017 — trailing Burundi, Thailand, Central African Republic and Chad. The article appeared on the Post’s “Monkey Cage” blog, which shares… read more about Turkish media upset by Duke Political Science Professor Michael Ward's model for coup predictions »
Our research has developed tools to forecast irregular leadership changes, which include coups. Using some of the tools and similar data, we’ve now created a 2017 forecast for the risk of coups for 161 countries. We use a small number of statistical models to create separate forecasts for the risk of a successful coup, like in Thailand in 2014, or failed coup attempt, like in Turkey in 2016. Then we combine them to get a single forecast for the risk of a coup attempt for each country ... High-risk cases all have markers… read more about Where are coups most likely to occur in 2017? Michael Ward coauthors for The Washington Post »
Bailey Sanders and Victoria Dounoucos, two Political Science Ph.D students, attended the Women's March in solidarity with their friend and to explore themes in their research interests. By attending the March, they learned more about the dynamics of this political coalition than they would otherwise. read more about Academic Life: Learning from the Women's March »
Bagg, Samuel. "When will a Darwinian approach be useful for the study of society?" Politics, Philosophy, and Economics, Available at Sage Journals In recent years, some have claimed that a Darwinian perspective will revolutionize the study of human society and culture. This project is viewed with disdain and suspicion, on the other hand, by many practicing social scientists. This article seeks to clear the air in this heated debate by dissociating two claims that are too often assumed to be inseparable. The… read more about January Duke Political Science Publications »
The “status quo” between China and Taiwan is never static. How Taiwanese people perceive the relationship necessarily constrains the political position of Taiwan’s democratically elected leader. As a result, understanding Taiwanese perceptions is essential in navigating the delicate relationship among Taiwan, China and the United States. Continue reading here read more about Taiwanese see themselves as Taiwanese, not as Chinese - Austin Wang coauthors for The Washington Post »
Timur Ohloff only spent one year as an undergraduate at Duke, but it was an important piece of the German student’s successful application for a 2017 Rhodes Scholarship. A graduate of Freie Universität Berlin with a B.A. in North American Studies and Political Science, Ohloff spent his junior year at Duke studying political polarization in America. His senior thesis, for which he conducted a national survey experiment, examined how politics affects people's partner preferences. "I am incredibly grateful for all that Duke… read more about After junior year as Duke Political Science major, German student wins Rhodes Scholarship »
Trump and his team are reacting to the CIA's assessment in precisely the wrong way. If Russian hacking operations did in fact occur, and if they did so at the behest of Russian intelligence, then the more Trump doubles down on claiming the contrary, the more reliant he becomes on Russian President Vladimir Putin keeping secret the Russian operations. Putin will eventually want to be paid for his silence. For example, he may want Trump to show flexibility regarding economic sanctions against Russia as a result of Putin's… read more about Trump needs to back Russian hack attack probe - Joseph Grieco writes op-ed »
But lost in the 2016 campaign rhetoric is the reality that NATO defense spending appears to have “turned a corner.” At the Wales Summit in September 2014, Alliance leaders pledged, for the first time publicly, to “reverse the trend of declining defense budgets.” Each NATO member committed to move toward spending 2 percent of GDP on defense — and 20 percent of defense budgets on equipment modernization. Our research shows a positive shift in burden-sharing. Continue reading here read more about NATO is sharing the defense burden - Eddy Malesky coauthors for The Washington Post »
If you're going to make the exception, you want to make the exception for a general that has thought a lot about civil-military relations and has a sophisticated understanding of civilian control, and Jim Mattis meets that test. He's literally co-edited a book on civil-military relations and, full disclosure, I had a chapter in that book. It's been a very difficult time for civil-military relations over the last several years. And having a secretary of defense who's trusted by both the generals and by the White House, could… read more about Mattis' appointment would require special approval from Congress - Peter Feaver on NPR »
Vincent Price, provost of the University of Pennsylvania since 2009, has been elected Duke University’s tenth president, announced David Rubenstein, chair of the university’s Board of Trustees, on Friday. In addition to being the chief academic officer at Penn, Price is the Steven H. Chaffee Professor of Communication in the Annenberg School for Communication and professor of political science in the School of Arts and Sciences. Continue reading Duke Today Price has published extensively on mass communication… read more about Former UPenn Provost and Professor of Political Science elected 10th President of Duke University »
On Monday, a student at Ohio State – who was also a permanent United States resident from Somalia – injured 11 people on the University’s campus. He did so using both a car and a knife. Because he is Muslim, posted his displeasure at perceived treatment of fellow Muslims on Facebook, and included a vague threat there, the first response of many has been to assume terrorism. This is entirely the wrong response. There have been a number of different definitions of terrorism used both by government agencies and in scholarly… read more about A Simple Rule for Defining Terrorism - David Siegel writes for Political Violence @ a Glance »
Daniel Enemark, Clark C. Gibson, Mathew D. McCubbins, and Brigitte Seim (2016). “Effect of Holding Office on the Behavior of Politicians,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(48): 13690–13695 Reciprocity is central to our understanding of politics. Most political exchanges—whether they involve legislative vote trading, interbranch bargaining, constituent service, or even the corrupt exchange of public resources for private wealth—require reciprocity. But how does reciprocity arise? Do government… read more about November Duke Political Science Publications »
NPR's Mara Liasson joins Here & Now to analyze the election results, Donald Trump's victory and President Barack Obama's comments on the race and what comes next. Also joining the conversation is Kerry Haynie, an associate professor of political science and African and African American studies at Duke University. Listen to the audio here read more about "We almost saw a new 'Southern strategy' in the Trump campaign" - Kerry Haynie on NPR »
The narrow failure of the peace referendum in Colombia on October 2nd shocked both the international community and the (“Si”-supporting) Colombian public. The “No” vote represents a substantial victory for a political opposition that built a coalition out of powerful and diverse domestic political forces. This presents a series of questions about why Santos promised a referendum in the first place, who voted in the “No” camp, and what this all means for the future of the peace process. The peace referendum in Colombia was a… read more about Kyle Beardsley and Juan Tellez co-author on Columbia's peace referendum for Political Violence @ a Glance »
Making counterterrorism more difficult has only a marginally negative effect on our well-being. That's not because terrorist attacks are insignificant to their targets, but because the chance of being the direct target of an attack is tiny. Making the proper functioning of our democracy more difficult, in contrast, has a tremendous negative effect. And that's what the media is doing by sensationalizing some events and ignoring others. In today's election coverage, for example, every word or action is framed in terms of how… read more about The election coverage we need and deserve - David Siegel writes for The Hill »
The (Duke) Chronicle sat down with Peter Feaver and Bruce Jentleson to discuss foreign policy, the 2016 election and Donald Trump. read more about "You may not be interested in foreign policy, but foreign policy is interested in you." Peter Feaver & Bruce Jentleson podcast »
As a general rule, political scientists tend to shy away from taking public stands for — or against — candidates that might make them appear partisan or somehow lacking in scientific objectivity. So it’s notable that a large group of political scientists has now signed an open letter warning that their academic experience persuades them that Donald Trump poses a unique menace to American democracy. The letter, which was signed by hundreds of political science professors at U.S. colleges and universities, defends the… read more about John Aldrich signs open letter with 300 other political scientists against Trump, Washington Post reports »
Our research indicates that many whites see blacks as less human than they see members of their own racial group. More than one-third of whites we surveyed rate black people as “less evolved” than they rate whites. Furthermore, substantial proportions of white respondents say that the terms “savage,” “barbaric,” and “lacking self-restraint, like animals” describe black people well. Those who hold these dehumanizing views of black people are disproportionately likely to support Donald Trump. Continue reading… read more about How Do Trump Supporters See Black People? Ashley Jardina coauthors in Slate »
Professor Michael Munger said for Trump to win, voter turnout would need to be low. He called Clinton’s support “broad but shallow,” adding he expects Trump supporters will show up on Election Day. He said it’s also possible that polls might not be picking up on some voter sentiments that could impact the election. If the Republicans do lose the presidency, it will force them to contemplate their future ahead of the 2020 election, said professor John Aldrich, who specializes in American politics and behavior. And,… read more about What can we expect on Nov. 8, and after? »
Balcells, Laia. “The determinants of low-intensity intergroup violence. The case of Northern Ireland,” Journal of Peace Research. What accounts for low-intensity intergroup violence? This article explores the determinants of low-intensity sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, which has marked the post-1998 peace agreement period. Low-intensity violence comprises a variety of events from riots to attacks against other civilians as well as against homes and symbolic buildings such as churches. We argue that this… read more about October 2016 Duke Political Science Publications »
“Rebuilding a disciplined hierarchical party organization is about avoiding the collapse Xi and other leaders observed in the Soviet Union,” said Melanie Manion, a political scientist at Duke University. “I think Xi views the stakes for China as very high, but the stakes for Xi as a leader are also high.” Continue reading here read more about China’s Antigraft Enforcers Take On a New Role - Melanie Manion interviewed for The NYTimes »
Offshore balancers argue that their strategy represents the United States’ traditional approach to global affairs, and one that has consistently proved effective in advancing U.S. interests. In reality, however, U.S. policymakers have pursued offshore balancing only when they have been overly focused on avoiding short-term costs, such as those associated with overseas military deployments, and have thus been willing to accept a high level of strategic risk. The results have been ambiguous at best and disastrous at worst,… read more about Should America Retrench? - Peter Feaver coauthors for Foreign Affairs »
On October 6, 2016, Edmund Malesky served on the panel, "The Governance Gap: Why Does Half the World Distrust Government and What Can We Do About It?' alongside Adnan Khan, Research and Policy Director of International Growth Centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science; Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director of Oxfam International; Kyle Peters, Interim Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer and Vice-President, Operations, World Bank Group; Henry Rotich… read more about Edmund J Malesky participates on World Bank and International Monetary Fund panel »
Political science double major, George Elliot '19, who is a member of the Bass Connections project team Animal Waste Management and Global Health, wrote about the Carolina Food Summit conference for Bass Connections. On September 28 and 29, I attended the inaugural Carolina Food Summit, which focused on the ways in which food has shaped place and cultural identity in North Carolina and the wider American South. The conference also addressed some of the key economic, social and environmental challenges facing North… read more about Polisci undergrad shares experience attending the Carolina Food Summit »
Still, navigating what to do with Trump is a tricky question for [Senator Richard] Burr. David Rohde, a professor of political science at Duke University, sees Burr’s continued support as a tough political calculation, and an issue that will stick around until Election Day. “No matter what Burr does, he has a problem. If he withdraws his support from Trump, he will alienate some portion of Trump’s supporters and they may abstain, thus losing support for Burr. If Burr sticks with Trump, he will alienate some of his own… read more about Trump support puts Republican candidates in a bind, David Rohde interviewed for CBS News »
“It’s troubling to watch as a political scientist,” said Haynie, referring to the racism and xenophobia marking Donald Trump’s campaign that many scholars thought was a relic of the past. He said the election results will have an enormous effect on people of color. Citing a Pew study, Haynie said there is an increase in voter diversity as the demographics of the U.S. change and there are more eligible Latino voters. “I think this growth is the answer to what we see from Trump and his followers,” Haynie said,… read more about Kerry Haynie panels with scholars on minority electoral politics »
Jay Ruckelshaus ’16 is a senior at Duke University and an Angier B. Duke Scholar with interests that span philosophy, politics, and advocacy. Passionate about the role of ideas in democratic governance, his academic work in political theory has resulted in several publications and earned him the Faculty Scholars Award and election to Phi Beta Kappa. Ruckelshaus aspires to the ideal of scholar-citizen, complementing his academic work with civic and political involvement at the university, state, and national levels.… read more about Jay Ruckelshaus, political science alumnus, gives Duke Forward address »
Growing up in a small city near Karlsruhe, Germany, Daniel Stegmueller rarely witnessed inequality – it is much less visible than in the United States, he says. The son of a construction worker, he was “a working-class kid” and “never felt disadvantaged.” But while studying political science and economic history as an undergraduate at the University of Mannheim and at Johns Hopkins University, he began to see the role of inequality in a larger context. “I took sociology classes on the side and people described how… read more about New faculty highlighted in Duke Today stories »